Group K · Matchday 17 · 2026-06-27
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
Atlanta, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
20.9%
31.8%
COD win
34.1%
Draw
34.1%
UZB win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 20.9%
- 0–1 15.5%
- 1–0 14.8%
- 1–1 11.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — COD
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 3
Last 5 — UZB
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
20.9
15.5
6.9
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
14.8
11.0
4.9
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
6.3
4.7
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
3
2.1
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = COD goals; columns = UZB goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.83
COD
0.87
UZB
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.