Group E · Matchday 10 · 2026-06-20
Ecuador vs Curaçao
Kansas City, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
17.4%
73.2%
ECU win
19.3%
Draw
7.2%
CUW win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 17.4%
- 2–0 15.6%
- 0–0 11.7%
- 3–0 10.9%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ECU
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 5
Last 5 — CUW
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 16
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.7
4.2
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
17.4
6.3
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
15.6
5.6
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
10.9
3.9
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
6.5
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
3.5
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ECU goals; columns = CUW goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.13
ECU
0.39
CUW
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.