Group H · Matchday 5 · 2026-06-15
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
19.3%
12.8%
KSA win
26.6%
Draw
60.5%
URU win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 19.3%
- 0–0 16.3%
- 0–2 13.7%
- 1–1 8.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — KSA
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 15
Last 5 — URU
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 9
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2018-06-20 Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia
- 2014-10-10 Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay
- 2002-03-27 Saudi Arabia 3–2 Uruguay
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
16.3
19.3
13.7
7.6
3.6
1.5
0.6
1
7.2
8.5
6.1
3.3
1.6
0.7
0.3
2
1.9
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
3
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = KSA goals; columns = URU goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.48
KSA
1.55
URU
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.