Group I · Matchday 6 · 2026-06-16
France vs Senegal
East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.6%
51.2%
FRA win
28.3%
Draw
20.4%
SEN win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.6%
- 0–0 15.3%
- 2–0 10.8%
- 1–1 10.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — FRA
GF / GA last 10: 27 / 11
Last 5 — SEN
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 9
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2002-05-31 France 0–1 Senegal
- 1963-04-18 Senegal 2–0 France
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.3
9.4
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
16.6
10.2
3.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
10.8
6.6
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
5.4
3.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
2.4
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = FRA goals; columns = SEN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.38
FRA
0.7
SEN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.