Group J · Matchday 6 · 2026-06-16
Argentina vs Algeria
Kansas City, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.1%
64.7%
ARG win
21.9%
Draw
13.2%
ALG win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.1%
- 2–0 12.7%
- 0–0 10.8%
- 1–1 8.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ARG
GF / GA last 10: 25 / 4
Last 5 — ALG
GF / GA last 10: 23 / 5
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2007-06-05 Algeria 3–4 Argentina
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.8
6.0
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
15.1
8.3
2.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
12.7
7.0
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
8.3
4.6
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.6
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ARG goals; columns = ALG goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.94
ARG
0.62
ALG
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.