Group G · Matchday 11 · 2026-06-21
New Zealand vs Egypt
Vancouver, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
20.3%
17.5%
NZL win
31.6%
Draw
50.9%
EGY win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 20.3%
- 0–1 19.8%
- 0–2 11.6%
- 1–0 9.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NZL
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 15
Last 5 — EGY
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 5
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2024-03-22 Egypt 1–0 New Zealand
- 1999-07-15 Egypt 1–0 New Zealand
- 1999-07-10 Egypt 1–1 New Zealand
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
20.3
19.8
11.6
5.3
2.1
0.7
0.2
1
9.8
9.6
5.6
2.6
1.0
0.4
0.1
2
2.8
2.8
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NZL goals; columns = EGY goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.53
NZL
1.22
EGY
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.