Group D · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
Paraguay vs Australia
Santa Clara, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
19.5%
33.2%
PAR win
33.1%
Draw
33.6%
AUS win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 19.5%
- 0–1 14.7%
- 1–0 14.6%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — PAR
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 10
Last 5 — AUS
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2010-10-09 Australia 1–0 Paraguay
- 2006-10-07 Australia 1–1 Paraguay
- 2000-06-15 Australia 2–1 Paraguay
- 2000-06-12 Australia 0–0 Paraguay
- 2000-06-09 Australia 0–0 Paraguay
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
19.5
14.7
6.7
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
14.6
11.1
5.0
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
6.6
5.0
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
3
2.3
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = PAR goals; columns = AUS goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.89
PAR
0.89
AUS
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.