Group G · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
New Zealand vs Belgium
Vancouver, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.7%
8.6%
NZL win
19.0%
Draw
71.9%
BEL win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.7%
- 0–2 14.3%
- 0–0 10.3%
- 0–3 10.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NZL
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 15
Last 5 — BEL
GF / GA last 10: 35 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.3
15.7
14.3
10.2
6.2
3.4
1.7
1
4.5
6.8
6.2
4.4
2.7
1.5
0.8
2
1.2
1.8
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NZL goals; columns = BEL goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.48
NZL
2.19
BEL
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.