Group D · Matchday 2 · 2026-06-12
United States vs Paraguay
Inglewood, United States
Most likely scoreline
0–0
14.3%
39.7%
USA win
29.0%
Draw
31.2%
PAR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 14.3%
- 1–0 13.5%
- 0–1 11.7%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — USA
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 17
Last 5 — PAR
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-11-15 United States 2–1 Paraguay
- 2018-03-27 United States 1–0 Paraguay
- 2016-06-11 United States 1–0 Paraguay
- 2011-03-29 United States 0–1 Paraguay
- 2007-07-02 United States 1–3 Paraguay
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14.3
11.7
5.8
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
1
13.5
11.1
5.5
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
2
7.7
6.3
3.1
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
3.4
2.8
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.3
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = USA goals; columns = PAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.17
USA
0.98
PAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.