Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14
Sweden vs Tunisia
Guadalupe, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
15.5%
40.7%
SWE win
29.9%
Draw
29.4%
TUN win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 15.5%
- 1–0 14.5%
- 0–1 11.9%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — SWE
GF / GA last 10: 15 / 21
Last 5 — TUN
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2003-02-12 Tunisia 1–0 Sweden
- 1999-02-10 Tunisia 0–1 Sweden
- 1992-04-22 Tunisia 0–1 Sweden
- 1976-02-28 Tunisia 1–1 Sweden
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.5
11.9
5.4
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.0
1
14.5
11.1
5.1
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.0
2
8.1
6.2
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
3.5
2.7
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SWE goals; columns = TUN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.15
SWE
0.9
TUN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.