Group L · Matchday 17 · 2026-06-27
Croatia vs Ghana
Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.7%
58.1%
CRO win
25.0%
Draw
16.8%
GHA win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.7%
- 0–0 12.6%
- 2–0 11.8%
- 1–1 9.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CRO
GF / GA last 10: 29 / 8
Last 5 — GHA
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 13
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.6
7.5
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
15.7
9.4
3.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
11.8
7.0
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
6.9
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
3.4
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CRO goals; columns = GHA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.66
CRO
0.68
GHA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.