Group B · Matchday 2 · 2026-06-12
Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Toronto, Canada
Most likely scoreline
1–0
12.5%
53.2%
CAN win
24.1%
Draw
22.6%
BIH win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 12.5%
- 0–0 9.9%
- 1–1 9.8%
- 2–0 9.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CAN
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 4
Last 5 — BIH
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.9
7.7
3.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
12.5
9.8
4.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
2
9.5
7.5
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
5.6
4.4
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
2.9
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CAN goals; columns = BIH goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.7
CAN
0.93
BIH
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.