Group H · Matchday 5 · 2026-06-15
Spain vs Cape Verde
Atlanta, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
2–0
14.5%
78.2%
ESP win
14.9%
Draw
5.7%
CPV win
Top scorelines
- 2–0 14.5%
- 1–0 14.0%
- 3–0 11.7%
- 0–0 8.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ESP
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 8
Last 5 — CPV
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8.2
3.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
14.0
5.3
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
14.5
5.5
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
11.7
4.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
8.0
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
5.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
2.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ESP goals; columns = CPV goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.63
ESP
0.41
CPV
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.