Group I · Matchday 6 · 2026-06-16
Iraq vs Norway
Foxborough, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.7%
16.3%
IRQ win
24.6%
Draw
58.9%
NOR win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.7%
- 0–0 12.4%
- 0–2 11.9%
- 1–1 9.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — IRQ
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 7
Last 5 — NOR
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.4
15.7
11.9
7.0
3.6
1.6
0.7
1
7.3
9.3
7.0
4.2
2.1
1.0
0.4
2
2.6
3.3
2.5
1.5
0.7
0.3
0.1
3
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = IRQ goals; columns = NOR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.67
IRQ
1.7
NOR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.