Group B · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar
Seattle, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
11.9%
45.3%
BIH win
25.7%
Draw
29.0%
QAT win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 11.9%
- 0–0 10.5%
- 1–1 10.5%
- 0–1 9.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BIH
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 11
Last 5 — QAT
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 17
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2010-08-10 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–1 Qatar
- 2000-01-24 Qatar 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.5
9.2
4.9
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
1
11.9
10.5
5.5
2.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
2
8.1
7.1
3.8
1.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
3
4.3
3.8
2.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.9
1.7
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BIH goals; columns = QAT goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.47
BIH
1.07
QAT
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.