Group G · Matchday 5 · 2026-06-15
Belgium vs Egypt
Seattle, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.8%
52.8%
BEL win
27.1%
Draw
20.1%
EGY win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.8%
- 0–0 13.9%
- 2–0 10.8%
- 1–1 10.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BEL
GF / GA last 10: 35 / 10
Last 5 — EGY
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 5
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2022-11-18 Egypt 2–1 Belgium
- 2018-06-06 Belgium 3–0 Egypt
- 2005-02-09 Egypt 4–0 Belgium
- 1999-03-30 Belgium 0–1 Egypt
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.9
8.8
3.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
15.8
10.1
3.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
10.8
6.9
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
5.8
3.7
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
2.6
1.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BEL goals; columns = EGY goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.48
BEL
0.73
EGY
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.