Group F · Matchday 10 · 2026-06-20
Tunisia vs Japan
Guadalupe, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
17.5%
24.9%
TUN win
31.0%
Draw
44.2%
JPN win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 17.5%
- 0–1 16.4%
- 1–0 11.4%
- 1–1 10.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — TUN
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 10
Last 5 — JPN
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2022-06-14 Japan 0–3 Tunisia
- 2015-03-27 Japan 2–0 Tunisia
- 2003-10-08 Tunisia 0–1 Japan
- 2002-06-14 Japan 2–0 Tunisia
- 1996-10-13 Japan 1–0 Tunisia
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17.5
16.4
9.3
4.1
1.5
0.5
0.2
1
11.4
10.8
6.1
2.7
1.0
0.3
0.1
2
4.5
4.2
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
1.4
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = TUN goals; columns = JPN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.75
TUN
1.16
JPN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.