Group L · Matchday 13 · 2026-06-23
England vs Ghana
Foxborough, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.9%
68.9%
ENG win
21.1%
Draw
9.7%
GHA win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.9%
- 2–0 14.4%
- 0–0 11.9%
- 3–0 9.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ENG
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 5
Last 5 — GHA
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 13
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2011-03-29 England 1–1 Ghana
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.9
5.2
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
16.9
7.3
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
14.4
6.3
1.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
9.6
4.2
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
5.5
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.8
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ENG goals; columns = GHA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.99
ENG
0.48
GHA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.