Group C · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Scotland vs Brazil
Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.4%
12.4%
SCO win
21.7%
Draw
65.6%
BRA win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.4%
- 0–2 13.0%
- 0–0 11.0%
- 0–3 8.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — SCO
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 10
Last 5 — BRA
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2011-03-27 Brazil 2–0 Scotland
- 1998-06-10 Brazil 2–1 Scotland
- 1990-06-20 Brazil 1–0 Scotland
- 1987-05-26 Scotland 0–2 Brazil
- 1982-06-18 Brazil 4–1 Scotland
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.0
15.4
13.0
8.5
4.8
2.4
1.1
1
5.8
8.2
6.9
4.5
2.5
1.3
0.6
2
1.9
2.6
2.2
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.2
3
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SCO goals; columns = BRA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.59
SCO
1.96
BRA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.