Group D · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
United States vs Turkey
Inglewood, United States
Most likely scoreline
1–1
10.0%
41.6%
USA win
24.1%
Draw
34.2%
TUR win
Top scorelines
- 1–1 10.0%
- 1–0 9.6%
- 0–1 8.6%
- 0–0 8.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — USA
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 17
Last 5 — TUR
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 14
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-06-07 United States 1–2 Turkey
- 2014-06-01 United States 2–1 Turkey
- 2010-05-29 United States 2–1 Turkey
- 2003-06-19 Turkey 2–1 United States
- 1991-09-04 Turkey 1–1 United States
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8.3
8.6
5.4
2.6
1.1
0.4
0.1
1
9.6
10.0
6.3
3.1
1.3
0.5
0.2
2
6.7
7.0
4.4
2.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
3
3.6
3.8
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
1.7
1.8
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = USA goals; columns = TUR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.51
USA
1.32
TUR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.