Group C · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13
Haiti vs Scotland
Foxborough, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
13.2%
15.3%
HAI win
21.3%
Draw
63.1%
SCO win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 13.2%
- 0–2 11.4%
- 0–0 9.2%
- 1–1 8.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — HAI
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 11
Last 5 — SCO
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.2
13.2
11.4
7.6
4.4
2.3
1.1
1
6.0
8.5
7.4
4.9
2.8
1.5
0.7
2
2.3
3.3
2.9
1.9
1.1
0.6
0.3
3
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.1
4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = HAI goals; columns = SCO goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.74
HAI
2.02
SCO
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.