Group I · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
Senegal vs Iraq
Toronto, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
18.6%
53.5%
SEN win
29.2%
Draw
17.2%
IRQ win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 18.6%
- 0–0 17.5%
- 2–0 11.9%
- 1–1 9.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — SEN
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 9
Last 5 — IRQ
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17.5
9.0
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
18.6
9.6
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
11.9
6.2
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
5.9
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
2.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SEN goals; columns = IRQ goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.36
SEN
0.58
IRQ
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.