Group J · Matchday 17 · 2026-06-27
Algeria vs Austria
Kansas City, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
11.6%
32.5%
ALG win
26.4%
Draw
41.1%
AUT win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 11.6%
- 0–0 11.0%
- 1–1 10.7%
- 1–0 10.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ALG
GF / GA last 10: 23 / 5
Last 5 — AUT
GF / GA last 10: 27 / 4
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 1982-06-21 Algeria 0–2 Austria
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.0
11.6
7.3
3.6
1.5
0.6
0.2
1
10.1
10.7
6.8
3.4
1.4
0.5
0.2
2
5.6
5.9
3.8
1.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
3
2.4
2.6
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ALG goals; columns = AUT goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.14
ALG
1.34
AUT
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.