Group E · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
Ecuador vs Germany
East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
13.7%
28.1%
ECU win
28.0%
Draw
43.9%
GER win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 13.7%
- 0–0 13.3%
- 1–1 10.8%
- 1–0 10.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ECU
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 5
Last 5 — GER
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 9
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2013-05-29 Ecuador 2–4 Germany
- 2006-06-20 Germany 3–0 Ecuador
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.3
13.7
8.5
4.1
1.7
0.6
0.2
1
10.5
10.8
6.7
3.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
2
5.0
5.2
3.2
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
1.9
1.9
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ECU goals; columns = GER goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.94
ECU
1.3
GER
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.