Group F · Matchday 10 · 2026-06-20
Netherlands vs Sweden
Houston, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
11.6%
52.9%
NED win
23.4%
Draw
23.6%
SWE win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 11.6%
- 1–1 9.7%
- 2–0 9.0%
- 0–0 8.9%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NED
GF / GA last 10: 30 / 6
Last 5 — SWE
GF / GA last 10: 15 / 21
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2017-10-10 Netherlands 2–0 Sweden
- 2016-09-06 Sweden 1–1 Netherlands
- 2011-10-11 Sweden 3–2 Netherlands
- 2010-10-12 Netherlands 4–1 Sweden
- 2008-11-19 Netherlands 3–1 Sweden
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8.9
7.4
3.7
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
11.6
9.7
4.8
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
2
9.0
7.5
3.8
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
5.5
4.6
2.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.8
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
1.3
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NED goals; columns = SWE goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.76
NED
1.0
SWE
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.