Group F · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Kansas City, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.8%
18.4%
TUN win
26.1%
Draw
55.4%
NED win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.8%
- 0–0 13.3%
- 0–2 11.3%
- 1–1 9.7%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — TUN
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 10
Last 5 — NED
GF / GA last 10: 30 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2009-02-11 Tunisia 1–1 Netherlands
- 1994-01-19 Tunisia 2–2 Netherlands
- 1978-04-05 Tunisia 0–4 Netherlands
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.3
15.8
11.3
6.3
3.0
1.3
0.5
1
8.2
9.7
7.0
3.9
1.8
0.8
0.3
2
3.0
3.6
2.6
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.1
3
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = TUN goals; columns = NED goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.7
TUN
1.57
NED
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.