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Group D · TUR · outside top-16

Turkey

Strength
76.9
± 1.6
Attack
78.5
0–100
Defense
74.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.43%
1.4% reach final
Strength trajectory
75.7 → 77.0 · +1.3
2023-03-31 range 75.4–77.0 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.43%
to lift
Kalshi
0.8%
implied · -0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
23.0%
R16
31.4%
Quarter
11.4%
Semi
4.0%
Final
1.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Atatürk Olympic Stadium
Istanbul · 75,145 seats (WC avg 55,865; +19,280)
Age profile
mean 26.7 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 23 U. Çakir 29 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    44 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.93rtg)
  • 1 M. Günok 36 yr
    Beşiktaş · Süper Lig
    40 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.85rtg)
  • 12 A. Bayindir 27 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    12 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.93rtg)
DEF Defenders · 10
  • 22 K. Ayhan 31 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    76 caps · 5G · 16 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.76rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.89 rtg
  • 3 M. Demiral 27 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    59 caps · 6G · 19 since 2024 (4G/0A · 7.24rtg)  |  club 2G · 7.01 rtg
  • 4 Ç. Söyüncü 29 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    64 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.98rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 7.08 rtg
  • 2 Z. Çelik 28 yr
    AS Roma · Serie A
    51 caps · 3G · 18 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.91rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.84 rtg
  • 18 M. Müldür 26 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    41 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.05rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.73 rtg
  • 14 A. Bardakci 31 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    31 caps · 3G · 25 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.96rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 7.14 rtg
  • 20 F. Kadioglu Top minutes 26 yr
    Brighton · Premier League
    29 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.04rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.83 rtg
  • 15 O. Kabak 25 yr
    1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
    29 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.03rtg)  |  club 4G · 6.92 rtg
+ 2 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 10 H. Çalhanoglu Top scorer 31 yr
    Inter · Serie A
    108 caps · 24G · 29 since 2024 (7G/4A · 7.36rtg)  |  club 9G · 4A · 7.51 rtg
  • 17 I. Kahveci 30 yr
    Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig
    45 caps · 6G · 15 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.02rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 7.11 rtg
  • 6 O. Kokçu 25 yr
    Beşiktaş · Süper Lig
    46 caps · 4G · 22 since 2024 (2G/5A · 7.15rtg)  |  club 8G · 8A · 7.57 rtg
  • 8 A. Güler 20 yr
    Real Madrid · La Liga
    27 caps · 6G · 23 since 2024 (5G/7A · 7.63rtg)  |  club 4G · 9A · 7.18 rtg
  • 21 B. Yilmaz 25 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    30 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.73rtg)  |  club 8G · 11A · 7.08 rtg
  • 5 S. Özcan 27 yr
    Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
    32 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.83rtg)
  • 16 I. Yüksek 27 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    31 caps · 1G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.03rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.93 rtg
  • 26 C. Uzun 20 yr
    Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
    5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.9rtg)  |  club 8G · 4A · 7.18 rtg
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 7 K. Aktürkoglu 27 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    48 caps · 15G · 23 since 2024 (10G/2A · 7.17rtg)  |  club 8G · 7A · 7.08 rtg
  • 11 K. Yildiz 20 yr
    Juventus · Serie A
    28 caps · 5G · 25 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.03rtg)  |  club 10G · 6A · 7.39 rtg
  • 19 Y. Akgün 25 yr
    Galatasaray · Süper Lig
    21 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.91rtg)  |  club 7G · 9A · 7.23 rtg
  • 9 D. Gül 21 yr
    FC Porto · Primeira Liga
    7 caps · 2G · 7 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.72rtg)  |  club 5G · 1A · 6.5 rtg
  • 24 O. Aydin 25 yr
    Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
    10 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/5A · 7.13rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 6.69 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 13 E. Elmali 25 yr
    Galatasaray · 21c
  • 25 S. Akaydin 31 yr
    Rizespor · 18c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
W 2–1 @ Venezuela
W 1–0 @ Kosovo
W 1–0 vs Romania
D 2–2 @ ESP
W 2–0 vs Bulgaria
W 4–1 vs Georgia

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(TUR win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-13 A vs Australia (AUS) 36.7% 27.6%
2026-06-19 H vs Paraguay (PAR) 37.9% 28.7%
2026-06-25 A vs United States (USA) 33.3% 23.8%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
72.1/100
vs model strength -4.8
Top-5 leagues
37%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Süper Lig Turkey 15 56.6% 60
Serie A Italy 3 16.8% 88
Premier League England 2 8.5% 100
Bundesliga Germany 3 7.0% 90
La Liga Spain 1 4.7% 95
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 1 3.6% 60
Primeira Liga Portugal 1 2.7% 70

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -4.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Turkey (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.