Group H · CPV
· outside top-16
Cape Verde
Strength
69.1
± 2.0
Attack
66.4
0–100
Defense
71.3
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
1.5%
R16
6.4%
Quarter
1.6%
Semi
0.4%
Final
0.1%
Recent form
last 6
W
3–0
v
Serbia
W
1–1
v
Finland
L
2–4
v
Chile
L
1–1
v
EGY
L
0–0
v
IRN
W
3–0
vs
Eswatini
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CPV win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | A vs Spain (ESP) | 5.7% | 14.9% | |
| 2026-06-21 | A vs Uruguay (URU) | 11.2% | 24.4% | |
| 2026-06-26 | H vs Saudi Arabia (KSA) | 30.5% | 33.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Cape Verde (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.