Group F · JPN
· outside top-16
Japan
Strength
79.2
± 1.3
Attack
78.4
0–100
Defense
78.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.95%
2.6% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.95%
to lift
Polymarket
1.8%
implied · -0.8pp
Kalshi
1.5%
implied · -0.5pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
23.7%
R16
29.0%
Quarter
14.8%
Semi
6.5%
Final
2.6%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
vs
Iceland
W
1–0
@
ENG
W
1–0
@
SCO
W
3–0
vs
Bolivia
W
2–0
vs
GHA
W
3–2
vs
BRA
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(JPN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | A vs Netherlands (NED) | 27.5% | 26.0% | |
| 2026-06-20 | A vs Tunisia (TUN) | 44.2% | 31.0% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Sweden (SWE) | 41.3% | 27.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Japan (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.