Group H · KSA
· outside top-16
Saudi Arabia
Strength
70.4
± 1.5
Attack
67.1
0–100
Defense
73.0
0–100
P(champion)
0.03%
0.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.03%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
2.1%
R16
9.7%
Quarter
2.8%
Semi
0.6%
Final
0.1%
Recent form
last 6
L
1–2
v
ECU
L
1–2
@
Serbia
L
0–4
vs
EGY
L
0–1
v
JOR
W
2–1
v
Palestine
L
0–1
v
MAR
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(KSA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | H vs Uruguay (URU) | 12.8% | 26.6% | |
| 2026-06-21 | A vs Spain (ESP) | 6.8% | 17.0% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs Cape Verde (CPV) | 36.2% | 33.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Saudi Arabia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.