Group J · ALG
· outside top-16
Algeria
Strength
75.9
± 1.5
Attack
77.0
0–100
Defense
74.2
0–100
P(champion)
0.26%
0.8% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.26%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
9.9%
R16
21.2%
Quarter
8.0%
Semi
2.8%
Final
0.8%
Recent form
last 6
D
0–0
v
URU
W
7–0
v
Guatemala
L
0–2
v
Nigeria
W
1–0
v
COD
W
3–1
v
Equatorial Guinea
W
1–0
v
Burkina Faso
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(ALG win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | A vs Argentina (ARG) | 13.1% | 21.9% | |
| 2026-06-22 | A vs Jordan (JOR) | 52.3% | 25.0% | |
| 2026-06-27 | H vs Austria (AUT) | 32.5% | 26.4% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Algeria (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.