Group D · AUS
· outside top-16
Australia
Strength
76.5
± 1.5
Attack
74.6
0–100
Defense
77.3
0–100
P(champion)
0.45%
1.5% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.45%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.3pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.3pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
22.8%
R16
32.5%
Quarter
12.4%
Semi
4.6%
Final
1.5%
Recent form
last 6
L
0–1
v
MEX
W
5–1
vs
CUW
W
1–0
vs
Cameroon
L
0–3
v
COL
L
0–1
v
Venezuela
L
1–2
@
USA
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(AUS win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H vs Turkey (TUR) | 35.4% | 27.5% | |
| 2026-06-19 | A vs United States (USA) | 32.1% | 27.2% | |
| 2026-06-25 | A vs Paraguay (PAR) | 33.6% | 33.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Australia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.