Group J · AUT
· outside top-16
Austria
Strength
77.6
± 1.6
Attack
77.3
0–100
Defense
76.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.5%
1.5% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.5%
to lift
Polymarket
0.5%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
13.5%
R16
26.7%
Quarter
11.8%
Semi
4.8%
Final
1.5%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
vs
TUN
W
1–0
vs
KOR
W
5–1
vs
GHA
D
1–1
vs
BIH
W
2–0
@
Cyprus
L
0–1
@
Romania
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(AUT win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | H vs Jordan (JOR) | 55.7% | 25.0% | |
| 2026-06-22 | A vs Argentina (ARG) | 15.6% | 24.9% | |
| 2026-06-27 | A vs Algeria (ALG) | 41.1% | 26.4% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Austria (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.