Group G · BEL
Belgium
Strength
82.4
± 1.5
Attack
83.4
0–100
Defense
80.0
0–100
P(champion)
4.06%
8.6% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
4.06%
to lift
Polymarket
1.7%
implied · +2.4pp
Kalshi
2.2%
implied · +1.8pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
60.9%
R16
65.1%
Quarter
39.1%
Semi
17.9%
Final
8.6%
Recent form
last 6
D
1–1
v
MEX
W
5–2
@
USA
W
7–0
vs
Liechtenstein
D
1–1
@
Kazakhstan
W
4–2
@
Wales
D
0–0
vs
North Macedonia
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(BEL win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | H vs Egypt (EGY) | 52.8% | 27.1% | |
| 2026-06-21 | H vs Iran (IRN) | 51.2% | 26.1% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs New Zealand (NZL) | 71.9% | 19.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Belgium (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.