Group B · BIH
· outside top-16
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Strength
71.3
± 1.7
Attack
70.9
0–100
Defense
71.2
0–100
P(champion)
0.04%
0.2% reach final
Model and markets
Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.04%
to lift
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.4pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
9.1%
R16
20.0%
Quarter
5.3%
Semi
1.2%
Final
0.2%
Recent form
last 6
D
0–0
vs
North Macedonia
W
1–1
vs
Italy
W
1–1
@
Wales
D
1–1
@
AUT
W
3–1
vs
Romania
W
4–1
@
Malta
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(BIH win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | A vs Canada (CAN) | 22.6% | 24.1% | |
| 2026-06-18 | A vs Switzerland (SUI) | 17.1% | 23.1% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs Qatar (QAT) | 45.2% | 25.7% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Bosnia and Herzegovina (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.