Group C · BRA
Brazil
Strength
87.3
± 1.7
Attack
86.0
0–100
Defense
86.3
0–100
P(champion)
13.08%
22.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
13.08%
to lift
Polymarket
9.0%
implied · +4.1pp
Kalshi
8.7%
implied · +4.4pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
69.4%
R16
70.6%
Quarter
50.1%
Semi
33.4%
Final
22.1%
Recent form
last 6
W
6–2
vs
PAN
W
3–1
v
CRO
L
1–2
v
FRA
D
1–1
v
TUN
W
2–0
v
SEN
L
2–3
@
JPN
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(BRA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H vs Morocco (MAR) | 46.6% | 31.8% | |
| 2026-06-19 | H vs Haiti (HAI) | 83.1% | 9.3% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs Scotland (SCO) | 65.6% | 21.7% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Brazil (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.