Group B · CAN
· outside top-16
Canada
Strength
74.6
± 1.4
Attack
73.6
0–100
Defense
74.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.38%
1.4% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.38%
to lift
Polymarket
0.3%
implied · 0.0pp
Kalshi
0.3%
implied · 0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
35.2%
R16
43.6%
Quarter
15.4%
Semi
4.6%
Final
1.4%
Recent form
last 6
W
2–0
vs
UZB
D
0–0
vs
TUN
D
2–2
vs
Iceland
W
2–0
v
Venezuela
D
0–0
vs
ECU
D
0–0
v
COL
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CAN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | H vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) | 53.2% | 24.1% | |
| 2026-06-18 | H vs Qatar (QAT) | 63.1% | 19.9% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs Switzerland (SUI) | 29.9% | 25.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Canada (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.