Group E · CIV
· outside top-16
Ivory Coast
Strength
75.8
± 1.8
Attack
73.5
0–100
Defense
77.1
0–100
P(champion)
0.38%
1.3% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.38%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.2%
implied · +0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
12.5%
R16
32.5%
Quarter
11.5%
Semi
3.9%
Final
1.3%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
v
SCO
W
4–0
v
KOR
L
2–3
v
EGY
W
3–0
v
Burkina Faso
W
3–2
v
Gabon
D
1–1
v
Cameroon
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CIV win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | H vs Ecuador (ECU) | 24.1% | 32.9% | |
| 2026-06-20 | A vs Germany (GER) | 19.4% | 23.6% | |
| 2026-06-25 | A vs Curaçao (CUW) | 65.7% | 22.5% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Ivory Coast (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.