Group K · COD
· outside top-16
DR Congo
Strength
72.1
± 1.8
Attack
69.0
0–100
Defense
74.5
0–100
P(champion)
0.06%
0.2% reach final
Model and markets
Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.06%
to lift
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.4pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
4.3%
R16
10.7%
Quarter
3.3%
Semi
0.9%
Final
0.2%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
v
Jamaica
W
2–0
v
Bermuda
L
0–1
v
ALG
W
3–0
v
Botswana
D
1–1
v
SEN
W
1–0
v
Benin
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(COD win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | A vs Portugal (POR) | 11.9% | 22.2% | |
| 2026-06-23 | A vs Colombia (COL) | 13.5% | 25.3% | |
| 2026-06-27 | H vs Uzbekistan (UZB) | 31.8% | 34.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for DR Congo (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.