Group K · COL
Colombia
Strength
83.3
± 2.0
Attack
81.8
0–100
Defense
83.0
0–100
P(champion)
4.64%
9.4% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
4.64%
to lift
Polymarket
1.7%
implied · +3.0pp
Kalshi
1.7%
implied · +3.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
39.7%
R16
56.1%
Quarter
33.2%
Semi
18.1%
Final
9.4%
Recent form
last 6
L
1–3
v
FRA
L
1–2
v
CRO
W
3–0
v
AUS
W
2–1
v
NZL
D
0–0
v
CAN
W
4–0
v
MEX
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(COL win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | A vs Uzbekistan (UZB) | 59.5% | 26.2% | |
| 2026-06-23 | H vs DR Congo (COD) | 61.1% | 25.3% | |
| 2026-06-27 | H vs Portugal (POR) | 33.0% | 28.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Colombia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.