Group L · CRO
Croatia
Strength
80.7
± 1.7
Attack
79.9
0–100
Defense
80.0
0–100
P(champion)
1.95%
4.9% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
1.95%
to lift
Polymarket
0.8%
implied · +1.1pp
Kalshi
0.8%
implied · +1.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
29.0%
R16
46.6%
Quarter
23.4%
Semi
11.3%
Final
4.9%
Recent form
last 6
L
1–3
v
BRA
W
2–1
v
COL
W
3–2
@
Montenegro
W
3–1
vs
Faroe Islands
W
3–0
vs
Gibraltar
D
0–0
@
CZE
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CRO win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | A vs England (ENG) | 23.2% | 28.8% | |
| 2026-06-23 | A vs Panama (PAN) | 64.1% | 21.8% | |
| 2026-06-27 | H vs Ghana (GHA) | 58.1% | 25.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Croatia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.