Group E · CUW
· outside top-16
Curaçao
Strength
63.2
± 2.3
Attack
62.2
0–100
Defense
64.7
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
0.5%
R16
1.6%
Quarter
0.2%
Semi
0.0%
Final
0.0%
Recent form
last 6
L
1–4
@
SCO
L
1–5
@
AUS
L
0–2
v
China PR
D
0–0
@
Jamaica
W
7–0
@
Bermuda
D
1–1
vs
Trinidad and Tobago
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CUW win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | A vs Germany (GER) | 4.1% | 9.8% | |
| 2026-06-20 | A vs Ecuador (ECU) | 7.2% | 19.3% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Ivory Coast (CIV) | 11.6% | 22.5% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Curaçao (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.