Group A · CZE
· outside top-16
Czech Republic
Strength
75.5
± 1.5
Attack
75.2
0–100
Defense
74.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.32%
1.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.32%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.9%
R16
32.3%
Quarter
11.7%
Semi
3.4%
Final
1.0%
Recent form
last 6
W
2–1
vs
Kosovo
W
2–2
vs
Denmark
W
2–2
vs
Republic of Ireland
W
6–0
vs
Gibraltar
W
1–0
vs
San Marino
L
1–2
@
Faroe Islands
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(CZE win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | A vs South Korea (KOR) | 35.3% | 28.8% | |
| 2026-06-18 | H vs South Africa (RSA) | 45.6% | 29.1% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs Mexico (MEX) | 25.4% | 25.8% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Czech Republic (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.