Group E · ECU
Ecuador
Strength
80.2
± 1.8
Attack
76.0
0–100
Defense
82.6
0–100
P(champion)
1.9%
4.7% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
1.9%
to lift
Polymarket
0.7%
implied · +1.2pp
Kalshi
0.7%
implied · +1.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
28.3%
R16
49.1%
Quarter
22.8%
Semi
10.7%
Final
4.7%
Recent form
last 6
W
2–1
v
KSA
D
1–1
@
NED
D
1–1
v
MAR
W
2–0
v
NZL
D
0–0
@
CAN
D
1–1
@
MEX
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(ECU win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | A vs Ivory Coast (CIV) | 43.0% | 32.9% | |
| 2026-06-20 | H vs Curaçao (CUW) | 73.1% | 19.3% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Germany (GER) | 28.1% | 28.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Ecuador (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.