Group L · ENG
England
Strength
86.0
± 1.6
Attack
83.5
0–100
Defense
86.2
0–100
P(champion)
9.4%
16.9% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
9.4%
to lift
Polymarket
10.8%
implied · -1.4pp
Kalshi
10.5%
implied · -1.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
64.0%
R16
67.0%
Quarter
45.3%
Semi
27.6%
Final
16.9%
Recent form
last 6
L
0–1
vs
JPN
D
1–1
vs
URU
W
2–0
@
Albania
W
2–0
vs
Serbia
W
5–0
@
Latvia
W
3–0
vs
Wales
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(ENG win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | H vs Croatia (CRO) | 48.0% | 28.8% | |
| 2026-06-23 | H vs Ghana (GHA) | 68.9% | 21.1% | |
| 2026-06-27 | A vs Panama (PAN) | 74.2% | 17.5% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for England (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.