Group H · ESP
Spain
Strength
87.5
± 1.8
Attack
87.5
0–100
Defense
85.4
0–100
P(champion)
13.33%
22.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
13.33%
to lift
Polymarket
16.6%
implied · -3.2pp
Kalshi
16.2%
implied · -2.8pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
70.1%
R16
69.9%
Quarter
47.6%
Semi
34.6%
Final
22.0%
Recent form
last 6
D
0–0
vs
EGY
W
3–0
vs
Serbia
D
2–2
vs
TUR
W
4–0
@
Georgia
W
4–0
vs
Bulgaria
W
2–0
vs
Georgia
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(ESP win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | H vs Cape Verde (CPV) | 78.2% | 14.9% | |
| 2026-06-21 | H vs Saudi Arabia (KSA) | 75.5% | 17.0% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs Uruguay (URU) | 48.9% | 28.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Spain (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.