Group I · FRA
France
Strength
84.9
± 1.6
Attack
83.9
0–100
Defense
84.0
0–100
P(champion)
6.94%
13.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
6.94%
to lift
Polymarket
16.3%
implied · -9.3pp
Kalshi
15.9%
implied · -8.9pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
59.0%
R16
63.4%
Quarter
38.6%
Semi
23.4%
Final
13.1%
Recent form
last 6
W
3–1
v
COL
W
2–1
v
BRA
W
3–1
@
Azerbaijan
W
4–0
vs
Ukraine
D
2–2
@
Iceland
W
3–0
vs
Azerbaijan
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(FRA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | H vs Senegal (SEN) | 51.2% | 28.3% | |
| 2026-06-22 | H vs Iraq (IRQ) | 70.9% | 20.1% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs Norway (NOR) | 52.4% | 25.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for France (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.