Group E · GER
Germany
Strength
83.4
± 1.2
Attack
86.1
0–100
Defense
79.2
0–100
P(champion)
5.03%
10.7% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
5.03%
to lift
Polymarket
5.0%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
5.3%
implied · -0.3pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
58.7%
R16
64.8%
Quarter
35.7%
Semi
20.7%
Final
10.7%
Recent form
last 6
W
4–0
vs
Finland
W
2–1
vs
GHA
W
4–3
@
SUI
W
6–0
vs
Slovakia
W
2–0
@
Luxembourg
W
1–0
@
Northern Ireland
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(GER win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | H vs Curaçao (CUW) | 82.0% | 9.8% | |
| 2026-06-20 | H vs Ivory Coast (CIV) | 56.9% | 23.6% | |
| 2026-06-25 | A vs Ecuador (ECU) | 43.9% | 28.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Germany (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.