Group L · GHA
· outside top-16
Ghana
Strength
71.8
± 1.8
Attack
70.3
0–100
Defense
72.7
0–100
P(champion)
0.03%
0.2% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.03%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · -0.2pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
4.2%
R16
10.5%
Quarter
3.3%
Semi
0.8%
Final
0.2%
Recent form
last 6
L
0–2
@
MEX
L
1–2
@
GER
L
1–5
@
AUT
L
0–1
@
KOR
L
0–2
@
JPN
W
1–0
vs
Comoros
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(GHA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | H vs Panama (PAN) | 40.4% | 28.6% | |
| 2026-06-23 | A vs England (ENG) | 9.7% | 21.1% | |
| 2026-06-27 | A vs Croatia (CRO) | 16.8% | 25.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Ghana (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.