Group C · HAI
· outside top-16
Haiti
Strength
65.5
± 1.8
Attack
66.9
0–100
Defense
64.6
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
0.4%
R16
1.7%
Quarter
0.2%
Semi
0.0%
Final
0.0%
Recent form
last 6
D
1–1
v
Iceland
L
0–1
v
TUN
W
2–0
v
Nicaragua
W
1–0
v
Costa Rica
L
0–3
@
Honduras
W
3–0
@
Nicaragua
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(HAI win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H vs Scotland (SCO) | 15.3% | 21.3% | |
| 2026-06-19 | A vs Brazil (BRA) | 3.4% | 9.3% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs Morocco (MAR) | 7.9% | 18.9% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Haiti (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.